Table of Contents 
1994 National Avian-Wind Power Planning Meeting Proceedings
WIND TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
E.A. DeMeo of the Electric Power Research Institute summarized the
status and potential of the wind power industry in the United States,
Utility-EPRI-DoE Wind Turbine Verification Program, and
activities of the Utility Wind Interest Group (UWIG) and the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC).
The following is an expanded version of his Abstract, incorporating copies of his slides plus additional points that arose during the presentation and discussion
Wind Power Status and Utility Activities
by
E.A. DeMeo, EPRI
Electricity generation from the power in the wind is becoming a commercial reality in many parts of the United States with good winds. After a decade of growth and maturation in California, wind power is now expanding across the United States with major new wind plants in operation, construction or advanced planning in Washington, Wyoming, Minnesota, Texas, Iowa, Maine, Vermont, New York, and elsewhere. In California, installed capacity totals some 1,600 MW, and an additional 500-1,000 MW of capacity is under discussion. In parts of the U.S.A. outside California, about 50 MW of capacity has been installed, about 250 MW of additional capacity is now at the permitting or construction stages, and at least 500 MW of further capacity has been proposed (slides 8,9). Overall, about 1 to 2 billion (1-2 x 109) dollars of investment is under discussion. Wind power is the only newly-emerging renewable technology for power generation that has reached the threshold of widespread commercial application.
Several forces are joining to encourage the growth in wind power. (1) Costs of generating equipment have dropped markedly over the past decade, making wind power competitive with conventional power generation in many cases. Also, the reliability of wind power plants has become very high. The energy cost in constant dollars has diminished from the early-1990s to today. EPRI believes that energy cost in constant dollars will further decline in the late 1990s and beyond (slide 4). Likewise, the project installed cost, currently about $800/kW, is expected to continue to decline gradually (slide 11). (2) Wind power has substantial environmental benefits relative to conventional power plants. There are no air or water emissions during operation. (3) Improved understanding of wind resources has uncovered a huge potential in many parts of the U.S. that could supply a substantial portion of the country's requirements for electricity. The wind resource is especially great in the Great Plains (slide 5).
In recognition of this potential, a Utility Wind Interest Group (UWIG) was established several years ago to understand and communicate the status of wind power from the perspective of the electric utility industry (slides 6,7).
The U.S. wind turbine supplier industry is expanding. One major player is actively developing several hundred megawatts of new capacity in several states. Several other firms with an established business base in California are expanding the geographic and technological scope of their operations (slide 10). Many of these firms are receiving technical and financial support from the DoE/NREL advanced wind turbine development program and/or a joint DoE/EPRI wind turbine performance verification program (slides 12-14). This verification program provides risk-shared funding to conduct operational tests of about 20 turbines of a given type. This program is designed to expand utility experience with wind power, evaluate new turbine designs, and establish a bridge between tests of 1 or 2 prototype turbines and commercial-scale operation of hundreds of machines. Round 1 of this program will involve tests in Texas and Vermont.
Meanwhile, there is much activity in Europe as well, where most governments have wind development programs and incentives. About 1,000 MW of capacity are in place now, and there are plans for about 4,000 MW of capacity by the end of the decade. There are a number of European wind turbine manufacturers. Some of these are developing technologically innovative equipment. European-built turbines continue to be installed in the U.S.A.
The continued expansion of wind power will require successful resolution of a number of key issues (slide 15). For example, many windy sites are distant from population centers, requiring lengthy transmission lines through areas that are often environmentally sensitive. The intermittent nature of wind presents challenges in integrating wind-generated power into a network that must supply reliable power at all times. The UWIG has recently initiated an expansion of its scope to address wind resource validation and utility-integration issues. On another front, concerns have been raised in some locations over reported collisions between wind turbines and migratory birds.
Resolution of these issues will require careful, reasoned discussion and teamwork among the major sectors of our society that will be affected by the growth and use of wind power. There are many stakeholders, not just the utilities and turbine producers. To provide a forum for broader discussion and a catalyst for the needed teamwork, a new group has recently formed. Called the National Wind Coordinating Committee (NWCC), this group includes representation from the electric utility, environmental, consumer advocate, regulatory, government, and manufacturing sectors (slides 16-19). The group's aim is to ensure the responsible use of wind power in the U.S. Toward this end, the NWCC will identify issues that impact the use of wind power, establish dialogue among key stakeholders, and catalyze appropriate activities. The group's ultimate vision is a self-sustaining commercial market for wind power. (By self-sustaining, the NWCC means that it is environmentally, ecologically, economically, and politically sustainable.)
The NWCC is in the process of establishing several Workgroups, including one to deal with avian issues (slide 20). The Avian Workgroup is expected to review the outcome of the present meeting and to make recommendations regarding implementation of this meeting's technical recommendations. Appendix 2A provides a more detailed description of the formation and perspective of the NWCC.
In the subsequent discussion, it was noted that no one expects the U.S. wind resource to be fully developed in the foreseeable future, but there is much potential for long-term development. At present, the U.S. produces 700,000 to 800,000 MW of electricity. AWEA hopes that the U.S. wind turbine capacity will increase from the present 2,000 MW to 10,000 MW by the year 2000 and to 50,000 MW by 2020. EPRI's vision is that 10% of the U.S. electricity requirements might ultimately be met by wind power—comparable to the proportion met by hydro-electricity now. It was suggested that 100,000 to 200,000 MW might be the upper limit of the available wind resource in the U.S.A.
At present, about 15,000 wind turbines are installed in the U.S.A., producing about 2,000 MW. Most existing turbines have lower generation capacity than current-design turbines. To reach 10,000 MW of capacity by the year 2000 would require about 16,000 new wind turbines of present design. If the upper limit on the wind resource is 100,000-200,000 MW, the upper limit on the number of wind turbines that would be needed in the U.S.A. would be about 200,000 to 400,000 units of present design. Power generated per turbine has, however, increased about ten-fold in the past decade.
It was noted that, although wind power has environmental benefits in comparison with some other methods of power generation, it also has environmental costs, including but not limited to bird fatalities. Meeting participants agreed that environmental issues other than bird fatalities need to be considered, e.g. in Environmental Assessments, but are beyond the scope of this meeting.
Some participants noted that plans for rapid expansion of the wind power industry provide a unique opportunity to do carefully planned tests of wind plant effects on birds, including well-controlled pre- vs. post-construction comparisons. Ideally, studies at different wind plants should be done in a coordinated way such that different wind plants form experimental replicates. By installing two or more different types of wind turbines in each wind plant and monitoring effects on birds, one could achieve a "split-plot" experimental design. These tests could be implemented in an Adaptive Resource Management framework.
The participants discussed the amount of land occupied or affected by turbines. It was suggested that, at least in California, wind turbines and associated infrastructure (including roads) typically occupy about 5% of the land area of a wind plant, increasing to a maximum of about 10% in steep terrain. However, more of the area could be affected indirectly, e.g. through effects on the prey available in the area as a whole. EPRI estimates that a typical wind plant produces about 20 MW per square mile. The Altamont wind plants include over 7,000 turbines on 80 square miles of ranchland. It was noted that road construction and other changes during wind plant construction can have various ecological effects, including interrelated effects on habitat, on wildlife other than birds, and on prey available to birds. Some participants noted that all of these points should be dealt with, e.g. in the environmental assessment. It was agreed, however, that the focus during the present meeting should be on the avian fatality issue and directly related issues.
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